MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0194
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
941 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110140Z - 110440Z
 
SUMMARY...ROBUST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS EXCEEDING 50 KFT HAVE
DROPPED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF CENTRAL TX.
DUAL-POL ESTIMATES FROM KGRK SUGGEST 1.50 TO 2 INCH HOURLY RATES
IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST A
FEW MORE HOURS AND BECOME MORE COLD POOL DRIVEN GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN 00Z RAOBS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

DISCUSSION...IN ADVANCE OF A DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM EAST OF
CHILDRESS TX DOWN TOWARD THE BIG BEND...CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED
WITHIN A HIGHLY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED
ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG. WHILE SUCH PROFILES SUGGEST MORE OUTFLOW
DOMINANCE GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
INITIALLY HUNG UP WITH A GRADUAL PROGRESSION TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ON A MORE
ISOLATED BASIS GIVEN THE HIGHER END FFG VALUES ACROS THE REGION.
WHAT IT DOES HAVE WORKING IN ITS FAVOR IS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH INFLOW NEARING 40 KNOTS PER THE VAD-WIND PROFILER
DATA. WHILE THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRAG SOUTH AND
EAST...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STILL LOCALLY APPROACH 2
INCHES WHICH MAY POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. RECENT CAMS AGREE ON
THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WANE BEYOND 04Z AS THE HIGHER CAPES
MIGRATE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD THE RED RIVER. 

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32539614 31909547 30979590 30439696 30029820 
            30119936 30399981 30699997 30959995 31199950 
            31659831 32099736 32519683