MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0196
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NE & SOUTHWEST IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 110243Z - 110843Z
 
SUMMARY....A VARIETY OF CELL MERGERS AND TRAINING SHOULD KEEP
FLASH FLOODING IN THE CARDS FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN KS HAS HELPED LEAD TO CELLS
WHICH HAVE BEEN RATHER STATIONARY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.  AN
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HEADING INTO SOUTHEAST NE AT ~25
KTS SHOULD CAUSE CELL MERGERS WITH CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ~
1.25" PER RECENT RAP RUNS.  MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE BEING
FED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 850 HPA OF 25-30
KTS.

THE INITIAL CELL MERGER ITSELF COULD CAUSE HOURLY RAIN RATES OF
2-3".  THEREAFTER, SOME SHORT PERIODS OF CELL TRAINING SHOULD
ALLOW HOURLY RAIN RATES TO MAX OUT NEAR 1.75".  THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW IS STILL WELL BACK IN SOUTHEAST CO, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE
AND NORTHWEST KS.  THE CURRENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS UNDERSELLING
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL HERE, WITH THE 10/00Z SPC WRF OR EMC
WRF-NMM HAVING THE BEST IDEA CONCERNING RAINFALL
MAGNITUDE/PLACEMENT.  SOILS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAIN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4"
EXPECTED, FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42439522 42239468 41479451 40759509 40419614 
            40019747 39529978 39770146 40410140 41429899 
            42119680