MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0198
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN MO, EASTERN KS, & SOUTHEAST NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110828Z - 111258Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES ARE EXPANDING ACROSS
THE REGION.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75" POSSIBLE OVER
SATURATED SOILS, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, 1.5-2.5" AN HOUR
PER RADAR ESTIMATES, ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE/BRIDGE TOGETHER
ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHWEST MO NEAR A STATIONARY THERMAL
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE CYCLONE.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.3" PER RAP FORECAST FIELDS.  INFLOW AT
850 HPA IS 25-40 KTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PER VAD WIND
PROFILES, WHICH IS ADVECTING IN MUCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG INTO THE
REGION, WHICH IS LEADING TO MINIMAL ELEVATION TO THE CONVECTION.  

PARTS OF THE REGION ARE SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL.  HEAVY
RAIN CORES WILL ATTEMPT TO PROPAGATE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT
20-25 KTS, A COMBINATION OF FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS
AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS PATTERN. 
CONSIDERING CURRENT RAIN RATES, THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE COULD BE
SOMEWHAT UNDERSELLING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL HERE.  WITH HOURLY
RAIN RATES UP TO ~ 1.75" POSSIBLE, HIGHER WHERE CELL MERGERS TAKE
PLACE, 2-4" TOTALS LOCALLY WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE.  THIS WOULD
OVERWHELM THE SATURATED SOILS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION.  FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41599670 41489538 40669396 39449281 38839240 
            37859219 37389305 37609491 38189674 38349843 
            39469851 39989841 41039784