MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0199
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
832 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KY...NORTHERN TN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 111231Z - 111500Z
 
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PARTS OF KY AND TN AS NEW CONVECTION FORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEN TRAIN OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. 

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF NORTHERN TN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPREADING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD AS
FAR AS SOUTHWEST KY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS DRAWN INTO THE REGION. 
AREA VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB TAPPING
A REGION WHERE MUCAPE WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO 1500 J PER KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.  

THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY AGREE THAT THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALLS INTO MID MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RATES DECREASE.

THUS THE RISK FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
TN WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND TRAINING OF
CELLS.  THERE IS ALSO A RISK OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KY WHERE
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE ENHANCED GIVEN THE UPSTREAM INSTABILITY AND
BEST FEED OF MOISTURE.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37358826 37238717 36848581 36248453 35478452 
            35448559 36118698 36528830 36908861