MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0200
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1103 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KY...NORTHERN TN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 111502Z - 112000Z
 
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PARTS OF KY AND TN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS NEW CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. 
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN TRAIN OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH MID MORNING HAS SHOWN A SUBTLE
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KY AND NORTHERN TN.  EVEN SO...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FORM
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS
FEEDS A MORE MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. AT
LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J PER KG TO
2500 J PER KG SEEN ON THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM SHOULD SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOKED AREA...WITH CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTH AND
EAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT.  

CONSIDERING THAT SOME PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TN HAVE BEEN SATURATED
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD WORSEN
ANY ONGOING FLOODING EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
START TO REDUCE RAINFALL RATES.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37498846 37398693 36348432 35598484 35758644 
            36208888 36948929