MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0201
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
458 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHWESTERN
IN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 112058Z - 112358Z
 
SUMMARY...ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IL...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO ORIENT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WHICH GENERALLY PARALLELS THE MEAN-STEERING
FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS LONG AS THIS
CONTINUES. IT REMAINS A FAVORABLE REGION FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD.

DISCUSSION...A LONG DURATION COMPLEX WHICH MOVED THROUGH ST. LOUIS
MO HAS ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN IL WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH BASED ON FIRST-ORDER STATIONS AND MESONET
DATA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OUTFLOW WAS SEEN PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARD EASTERN MO WHICH HAS BEEN THE SITE FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY ALIGNED
THEMSELVES WITH THE MEAN-STEERING FLOW WHICH SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF
TRAINING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS QUITE BUOYANT
BASED ON THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM SGF AS WELL AS RECENT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES FROM THE RAP. UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW SHOULD HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT A THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 00Z AS LONG AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO THRIVE. RECENT CAMS HAVE FAVORED THE STRONGER CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH WHICH IS ALREADY OFF IN PLACEMENT. THUS...HAVE FOCUSED MORE
ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38988904 38918799 38578741 37958752 37958913 
            37679011 36999102 37329188 37929167 38389120 
            38739043