MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0203
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120359Z - 120959Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE EARLY STAGES OF AN MCS WITH A LEADING EDGE OF
BOWING CONVECTION AND A TRAILING LINE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...WITH STORM RELATIVE FLOW ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLANK
OF THE LINE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPANDS
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL COOLING
AND SATURATION WILL ALSO REACH NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLE.

GIVEN VEERING WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH
INFLOW OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS TO SUPPORT PROPAGATION...CELL MOTIONS OF
WNW AT 20 KNOTS IS REASONABLE. ALONG WITH DEEP UPDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...PEAK RAIN RATES 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE LIKELY...WITH A DURATION OF 2 HOURS POSSIBLE. GIVEN 3
HOURLY FFG VALUES NEAR 3 INCHES...THESE VALUES WOULD EXCEED
GUIDANCE.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33549736 33509648 32669665 31439785 31179944 
            32150033 33119984 32849832