MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0204
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OH AND TN VALLEYS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120430Z - 121030Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...AN MCV OVER SOUTHERN ILLINIOS WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE THE INFLOW OF CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE AIR ASCENDING A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TENNESSEE WESTWARD. CONVECTION
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ORIGINATE SOUTHWEST OF THE MCV
CLOSER TO THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND ALSO IN A AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE MCV WHERE THE CIN IS LOWER. 

HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...WITH VEERING WINDS AND MODEST INFLOW FAVORING TRAINING
AND AT TIMES POSSIBLY QUASI-STATIONARY CELL MOTIONS. GIVEN ALREADY
REDUCED FFG VALUES DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE.  

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38328937 38038656 36988609 36348727 36998945 
            36599139 37259163