MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0205
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120726Z - 121326Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS CONTINUES TO
EXPAND WITHIN VICINITY OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM
MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AVERAGE MIXED LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 1000 TO
2500 J/KG EXIST NEAR THE FRONT WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES RECENTLY CREATED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. DEEP LAYER
WINDS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH NEARLY OFFSETTING INFLOW
LEADING TO AVERAGE CELL MOTIONS TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
FINALLY...2 LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 07Z
WILL OVERRIDE THE FRONT WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AND AUGMENT THE
ALREADY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS...EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION WITH RAIN RATES NEARING 2 INCHES
PER HOUR TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   37108972 36108954 35009199 33569415 33499599 
            34239641 35239563 36109363