MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0206
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140530Z - 140930Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER
CONVECTIVE LINE AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TX
COULD TRAIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER. THE
TRAINING COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB...WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE KLBB RADAR SHOWED THE
CONVECTION TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...IN LINE WITH THE 850/300 MB
MEAN WIND. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AS THE NEW CONVECTION FORMS
ON THE EDGE OF A 1.40 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW CONVECTION. 

REGIONAL VWP SHOWED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW
AHEAD OF THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE AND THE NEWLY FORMED
STORMS...WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE THE MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE NEWLY FORMING CONVECTION. THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
NEW STORMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER WITH THE PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BE SLOWING ON THE WESTERN EDGE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW AND SLOWING MOVEMENT COULD RESULT IN A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT HERE AS WELL. 

CURRENTLY...THE COVERAGE OF THE NEW CONVECTION IS NOT
EXTENSIVE...AND THE LATEST HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS
THAT THE COVERAGE MAY NOT GET MUCH LARGER. THE LATEST
HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2-3 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF KLBB...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE
WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. 

THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OVER LOCALLY SATURATED SOILS RAISES THE
THREAT FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33550186 33430119 32760060 32720059 32170053 
            31720084 31590142 31720169 31970179 32280176 
            32730166