MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0213
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 162044Z - 170244Z
 
SUMMARY...A GROWING MASS OF CONVECTION IS EVOLVING NEAR THE
NM/CO/TX BORDER.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75" COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER PARTIALLY SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A GROWING NUMBER OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO, NORTHEAST NM, AND NEAR THE
BORDERS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES.  THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING
IN A DIVERGENT AREA ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 0.75", WHICH
CORRECTED FOR ELEVATION ARE NEAR 1.5" AT SEA LEVEL.  THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS STRONGLY VEERED WITH HEIGHT NORTH OF A THERMAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH TX AND IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A BOUNDARY SHOWING
HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE KS/CO/OK BORDER.

CELL MOVEMENT IS INITIALLY CHAOTIC, WHICH RAMPS UP THE CHANCES OF
SHORT TERM CELL MERGERS.  THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING UPSCALE AS IT MOVES ROUGHLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT MOTIONS UP TO 35 KTS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  AFTER 23Z, THE
850 HPA INFLOW BACKS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWER CELL MOTION
THEREAFTER.  CIN SHOULD ALSO ERODE TOWARDS 23Z, ALLOWING THE
THERMAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME MORE IMPORTANT TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  WITH SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE, IT
WOULD NOT MAKE MUCH TO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.  RADAR ESTIMATES
LOCALLY EXCEED 1.5" AN HOUR, WHICH COULD DOUBLE WHERE CELLS MERGE.
 LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3" ARE ADVERTISED BY THE MESOSCALE/CAM
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE 12Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING THE THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND AMARILLO IS IN THE 22-02Z TIME
FRAME.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37290378 37110142 35749980 34849999 34910185 
            36230403