MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0229
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1128 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SW OKLAHOMA...E PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230330Z - 230830Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY
AS MATURING MCS SHIFTS EASTWARD.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR LOOP SHOWS VERY MATURE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SW OK.  UNDER THE
SHIELD...RADAR DEPICTS AN MCV LIFTING NE OUT OF COLLINGSWORTH
COUNTY WITH BANDING FEATURES EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SW OK.  IN
THE SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX...THREE DISTINCT SUPERCELLS EXTEND FROM
HALL TO FOARD COUNTY ROTATING ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT-LIKE FEATURE
THAT EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BUT
ALSO CONNECTS BACK TO A INTERSECTION/BOUNDARY THAT WAS SEEN IN THE
AMA RADAR IN E DEAF SMITH COUNTY RETROGRADING WITH THE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  THIS SOUTHERN EDGE ALSO APPEARS TO BE
A DISTINCT REPRESENTATION OF THE INVERSION CAPPING. 

CURRENT STRENGTHENING 35-45 KT LLJ WITH STRONG MST TRANSPORT GIVEN
TPWS UP TO 1.6-1.7" RANGE.  THIS WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT
MAINTENANCE OF THE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WITH BUNKERS
SUPERCELL VECTORS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
COMPOUNDING OF RAIN TOTALS GIVEN RATES IN THE 2"/HR RANGE. 
ADDITIONALLY THE CELL MOTIONS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY SE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR SOME CELL TRAINING...AS COLD POOL/OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION NEARER THE MCV SHOULD REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY TO
ALLOW FOR THIS TRAINING SETUP THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.   WITH TIME INERTIAL VEERING OF THE LLJ MAY ALSO
SUPPORT CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MST AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY FROM
THE CAPPED REGION AT A STRONG ANGLE TO THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED
ISNETROPIC ASCENT. 

HI-RES CAMS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY BUT AS THE COMPLEX HAS
MATURED...HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSOLIDATING ON THIS TYPE
SCENARIO...WITH 6HR TOTALS UP TO 4-5" POSSIBLE. THE EXPERIMENTAL
TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLES FROM THE ESRL HRRR ALSO SHOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF 1 OR 2"/3HRS IN THE 50-60 RANGE NEAR/ALONG THE
RED RIVER. .PROVIDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FLASH FLOODING
SETUP.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35350029 35249876 34629745 33829712 33389810 
            34090066 34500095 34870086