MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0232
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1011 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS & SOUTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 241411Z - 242011Z
 
SUMMARY...AN MCV ACROSS NORTHEAST KS IS EXPECTED TO HELP ORGANIZE
NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO. 
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A THERMAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AND
SOUTHWEST MO ALONG WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KS ARE ACTING AS BOUNDARIES FOR NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE
SOUTHERN KS/MO BORDER ACROSS SOUTHERN MO.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER SOUTHERN TX, THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST, AND TWO DYING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND EASTERN OK.  MUCAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS AND OK IS IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WITH 850 HPA
INFLOW SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 30 KTS PER VAD
WIND PROFILES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75" LIE ACROSS
THE REGION PER RECENT RAP RUNS AND GPS VALUES.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CIN TO ERODE BY 15Z, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED.  RAP FORECASTS APPEAR TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PER SPC MESOANALYSES.
 BUILDING MLCAPE VALUES TO 3000+ J/KG IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD, WHICH WOULD HELP STRENGTHEN NEW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS
EVEN WHILE 850 HPA INFLOW WEAKENS LATER TODAY.  BULK SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 25-30 KTS, WHICH SHOULD HELP
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 KTS, A COMPROMISE OF THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS AND THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS
PATTERN THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN.  THE 00Z SPC WRF, 00Z
WRF4NSSL, AS WELL AS THE 09Z & 11Z HRRR EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE HAVE
A SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE, WHICH COULD FALL
QUICKLY.  HOURLY RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND THE BACKING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AFTER 17Z. 
FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38979302 38149183 36209063 35729160 36289353 
            36789490 37729634 38269612 38839544 38669408