MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0235
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E OKLAHOMA...EXT NE TEXAS...SW ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 250554Z - 251154Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING STORMS WITHIN MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO
POSE CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVERNIGHT. 

DISCUSSION...IR LOOP LOOP SHOWS VERY STRONG CLUSTERS WITH
IMPRESSIVE OVERSHOOTING TOPS COOLING TO -70C OVER ATOKA AND
OKMULGEE COUNTIES. WV LOOP AND SATL DERIVED AMVS PLACE THESE
CLUSTERS IN A THE LEFT NOSE OF ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 90KT
SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS PROVIDING EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE LIKELY FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SPEED MAX APPROACHES N TX.  CELLS ORIGINATED
ALONG AN UPGLIDE REGION ON THE EASTERN CONVERGENCE REGION OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...THAT PROVIDED EXCELLENT MST
TRANSPORT AND ADVECTION OF INSTABILTY WHICH ALLOWED FOR
BACKBUILDING CELLS FOR STALLING FORWARD PROGRESS TO HELP LOWER
CELL BASES FOR MORE SURFACE ROOTED CONVECTION.  THIS COMPOUNDED
WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION PROVIDES A
SOURCE FOR CELL ROTATION AND THEREFORE SLOWER RGT TURNING CELL
MOTIONS COMPOUNDING DURATION OF HIGH EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. 

FURTHER SOUTH...COMPLEX IS ALSO ROOTED ON THE A SFC WARM FRONT
THAT BISECTS OKLAHOMA FROM THE ARLATEX TO THE E PANHANDLE.  WITH
TPWS OVER 1.75" AND HIGH DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LOW
LEVEL VEERED PROFILES...MST MASS LOADING IS MAKING CELLS
INCREASELY EFICIENT WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"-2.5"/HR.   

FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS E
OK BEFORE COLD POOL GENERATION ALLOWS FOR SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION
OF THE COMPLEX TOWARD THE E AND SE OVER THE COMING HOURS.  HI-RES
CAM GUIADANCE HAS HANDLED THE SETUP POORLY WITH THE HRRR V.2 DOING
THE BEST WITH A COMPLEX ALONG THE RED RIVER BUT THE CENTRAL
COMPLEX IS TOO FAR NORTH...STILL THE PLACEMENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS UP TO 3-5" OVER THE NEXT 6HRS FAVORING THE SLOWER MOVING
SOUTHERN COMPLEX.  THIS SHOULD POSE A GREATER CONVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE OF FF CONDITIONS ACROSS E/SE OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.    


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36489575 36359512 35999451 35469425 34869426 
            34259438 34049451 33789477 33609577 33529638 
            33579677 33849688 34259665 34649659 35119670 
            35379674 35809705 36039702 36429635