MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0236...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
757 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK & PORTIONS OF AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 251150Z - 251610Z
 
SUMMARY...A TRAINING BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR WITH TIME, WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO
2" EXPECTED, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SATURATED SOILS AND
WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A SHORT TRAINING BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AS OF LATE.  THE REGION HAS NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST, WHICH
HAS LIKELY FOSTERED THE TRAINING BAND.  THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS OF
BACKBUILDING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK, AND NEW THUNDERSTORM GENERATION
ON ITS FORWARD FLANK NEAR THE AR/OK BORDER, WHICH HAS SLIGHTLY
LENGTHENED THE BAND WITH TIME.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.7-1.8" IN THIS AREA PER GPS INFORMATION, ABOUT 1.5 SIGMAS ABOVE
THE MEAN FOR LATE MAY.  LOW LEVEL INFLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
40 KTS IS SHOWN ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES, WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
2000+ J/KG MUCAPES INTO THE COMPLEX.

NONE OF THE MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE IS CAPTURING THE LOCATION OF
THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CORRECTLY -- MOST ARE 100-200 MILES TOO
POLEWARD WITH ITS LOCATION.  WHILE FORWARD PROPAGATION TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 25 KTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THIS COMPLEX
IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWERING INSTABILITY, WHICH
SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCES OF THIS SHORT TRAINING BAND OF ARCING
OUT INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH TIME.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" POSSIBLE PER THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. OVER SATURATED SOILS AND URBAN AREAS, FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36899536 36639404 36139279 35309185 34859199 
            34539247 34599315 34909426 35399522 36239651 
            36659686 36889621