MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0243
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 262349Z - 270449Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS WITHIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG MCS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH IMPRESSIVE
OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO OVER 60,000 FEET WITH TEMPERATURES OF -80C. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A MARKED V-SHAPED ANVIL WITH 
BACKBUILDING TOWARDS THE WEST.  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 6
INCHES HAS BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON ON AREA RADARS, AND
A LOCAL REPORT OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES.

THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ADVECTING PWS APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. 
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD EASILY EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND A LOW LEVEL FRONT IN PLACE.  

THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH 5Z WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION, AND
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP ALSO INDICATES 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN.  GIVEN THE SUSTAINED NATURE OF THIS MCS AND THE
RAINFALL RATES INVOLVED, FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. 

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31409531 31359464 30929395 30199390 29719423 
            29329472 28919531 28519608 28199678 28209749 
            28409823 28879874 29479889 30129857 30669755 
            31009670 31339593