MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0244
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
835 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS AND WEST CENTRAL MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 270033Z - 270333Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATING SOILS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE 23Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MLCAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.  INFLOW AT 850 MB HAS BEEN ABOUT 35 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES PER LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS.  CELL MERGERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THIS AREA

THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR 2 TO LOCALLY 4
INCHES OF RAIN.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO PEAK
NEAR 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH A NEARBY SOURCE FOR LIFT, HOURLY RAIN
RATES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES, THOUGH THEY COULD BE HIGHER IN
AREAS WHERE CELL MERGERS OCCUR.  SHORT PERIODS OF CELL TRAINING
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39239358 39059221 38389179 37639189 37129238 
            36989354 37009533 37109684 37309771 37819837 
            38239854 38529843 38959801 39139712 39229545