MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0245
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OK...CENTRAL.EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 270315Z - 270730Z
 
SUMMARY...THE AXIS OF EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IS LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY UNDERNEATH A HIGHLY DIFLEUNT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.  THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO
WESTERN OK.  H85 FLOW IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THAT
LINE...WHILE 250 MB FLOW WAS HIGHLY DIFLUENT BETWEEN A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
OF THERE.  IN ADDITION...00Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED THE COUPLING OF
ONE SPEED MAX NOSING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND SPEED MAX
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM WESTERN OK INTO
CENTRAL KS. FROM EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO....CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT FROM EARLIER READINGS OF MINUS 80 DEGS BUT THOSE
CLOUD TOPS WERE STILL COLDER THAN THE CONVECTION TO ITS WEST. 

THINKING IS THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FROM OK INTO CENTRAL KS
THROUGH 0730Z...WHILE CONVECTION OVER FAR EASTERN KS INTO MO WILL
BE MOVING OVER AREAS WHERE FFG HAS BEEN LOWERED TO LESS THAN AN
INCH BY THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING.  

THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING PARTICULARLY WELL IN HANDLING THE
DETAILS OF THIS CONVECTION. THE OUTLOOK AREA WAS LARGELY AN
EXTENSION OF TRENDS IN SHORT TERM RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION PARTIALLY REPLACES MPD 224
WHICH WAS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 27/0333Z.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39899623 39599465 38849209 38119303 37959419 
            37769633 36919722 35729761 34719777 34149879 
            34179922 35109974 37929883 39189808