MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0247
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
523 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...FAR WEST LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 270922Z - 271400Z
 
SUMMARY...A LONG LIVED...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENT WILL
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE MORNING WITH RAINFALL
FROM THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS REACHING FAR WESTERN LA BY 15Z.  

DISCUSSION..DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SPEEDS AT LEAST 25 KTS HAS
BEEN FEEDING A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX...AND THE AREA
88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWS WINDS CLOSER TO 30 KTS HAS BEEN
FEEDING AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPS OF 348K TO 352K INTO THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE STORM.  

THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS...BUT SOME SIGNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND
THE RAP THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND AS THE
STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE THETAE RIDGE AXIS.  

THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TX WHERE THE GROUND HAS BEEN SATURATED.  ELSEWHERE...FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL BUT STILL
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RANGE.  RAINFALL RATES THIS
HIGH ARE POSSIBLE...SO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THERE. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31659482 31589338 30659335 29869451 29779563 
            29739616 29649647 29739658 30109658 30249644 
            30439642 30709636 30919619 31149585 31289564