MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0248
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
832 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 271230Z - 271600Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH 15Z ALONG A SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...THE STILL-ROBUST SSW LOW LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 40-45
KTS AT 850 MB PER THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES AND LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTION ALONG
AN EFFECTIVE WSW-ENE SURFACE FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. PER THE LATEST SPC
ANALYSIS...MODEST DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY IS FEEDING INTO THIS
COMPACT MCS FROM THE SOUTH... WITH MUCAPES RANGING BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS ALSO
FAVORABLE...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES PER THE LATEST GPS
ANALYSIS. 

THE LATEST SATELLITE LONGWAVE IR LOOPS DO SHOW SOME CLOUD TOP
WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW FRAMES...INDICATIVE OF THE WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL JET (SOUTHERLY INFLOW). AS SUCH...THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT WITH THIS MCS WILL LIKELY CEASE BY 15Z. UNTIL THEN...PER
THE LATEST RADAR QPE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE PARALLEL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND 3
TO 6 INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS ARE ANTICIPATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER
CORES. IN AREAS THAT HAD ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
RECENTLY...WHICH IS REFLECTED BY THE LOWERED FFG AT 06Z...THESE
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES. 

HURLEY

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33109494 32949395 32339367 31799402 31409480 
            31069623 30949848 31279978 32049957 32649803