MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0251
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
547 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN OK...CENTRAL KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 272140Z - 280200Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING DUE TO
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...A GRADUALLY ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WILL BE
LIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN KS.

RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500
J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND A
BIT MORE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE CELL MOTION WILL TEND TO FAVOR SOME RISK OF TRAINING
ACTIVITY...AND ALSO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW CELL-MERGERS. JUST
OVER THE LAST 15 TO 30 MINUTES THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF
OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED IN VICINITY OF HARVEY AND SEDGWICK
COUNTIES AS PER THE GOES-OTD DETECTION ALGORITHM. A COMBINATION OF
THE CELL-MERGER THREAT WITH THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS WILL PROMOTE
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATE POTENTIAL. PWATS OVER THE REGION AS PER
BLENDED-TPW IMAGERY ARE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES AND SO EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES TO LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR.

HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE STRONGER DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT
AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH CELL-TRAINING.

EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS...AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...EXPECT THERE TO BE SUFFICIENT RUNOFF FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39679679 39279625 38629612 38009622 37389638 
            36809673 36359719 36219779 36329819 36699825 
            37639781 38499766 39119779 39569749