MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0252
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN KS...SOUTHEAST NEB 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 272345Z - 280300Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED AND SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS
ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEB AS IMPROVING UPPER JET
DYNAMICS/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH A POOL OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

CELL-MOTIONS ARE RATHER SLOW AND THE LAST HOUR THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL MERGERS ALONG WITH CLUSTERS OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS PER
THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM. THIS CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR GIVEN PWATS
THAT ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES.

GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW FFG VALUES AND WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...EXPECT FLASH FLOODING TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST  THROUGH EARLY TO MID
EVENING GIVEN THE IMPROVING LARGER SCALE FORCING OVER THE REGION
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41449772 41449689 40799610 40059608 39589659 
            39159759 39219832 39409858 40109861 40989837