MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0254
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1104 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 280303Z - 280730Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 28/0252Z
CONTINUED TO SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA IN
A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  IN ADDITION...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWER BATCH OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN KS WERE ALSO
COOLING IN A REGION BETWEEN AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST.  

CELL MOTIONS HAVE REMAINED RATHER SLOW THIS EVENING AND NOTHING IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ANY EMBEDDED FEATURES WILL BE HELPING
TO ACCELERATE THE CELLS.  THUS RAFL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING
BETWEEN 1.25 INCHES AND 1.50 INCHES.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO VERY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
AT THAT POINT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT RAINFALL RATES MAY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41819823 41599700 40649570 40079590 39689644 
            38619839 38669956 39049969 39919869 40699830 
            41239852