MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0255
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG BEND TO HILL COUNTRY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 282330Z - 290530Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEPENING MOISTURE WITH SUSTAINED INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
INFLOW ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING MAY ENCOURAGE TRAINING
CONVECTION.  

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PERHAPS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL INFLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE BIG BEND REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. 
THE 21Z RAP SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
20-25 KTS...WITH PWS INCREASING TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  MEANWHILE MUCAPE VALES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN 2000-4000 J/KG.  WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE STEADILY DOWNSTREAM...DEEPENING MOISTURE WITH SUSTAINED
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.  IN
ADDITION...PERSISTENT LOW LOW LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OF WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY ENCOURAGE
REDEVELOPING CONVECTION BACK THE WEST.  THIS COMBINATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS.  FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING 06Z...THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR SHOW LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.  LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THESE AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL RUNOFF CONCERNS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33159955 32879768 31699855 30829911 29139900 
            28629989 29090067 29680196 30660235 32610121