MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0256
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
928 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN COASTAL SC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290127Z - 290727Z
 
SUMMARY...AS T.S. BONNIE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST...INTENSIFYING
RAINFALL RATES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS AND
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

DISCUSSION...T.S. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY.  DEEPENING
MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE-UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
THE 23Z RAP SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
AREAS...THE RAP SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG
THROUGH 07Z.  HOWEVER...EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA HAVE RECEIVED 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE PAST 6-HRS.  THERE IS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 6-HRS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST INTO THE INTERIOR LOW COUNTRY...WHERE THE
12Z SSEO MEAN SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH 07Z.  SSEO
MEAN NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF 3-HR QPF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ARE
30-50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33368016 33047938 32567997 32328038 31898085 
            32468123 33128095