MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0257
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290546Z - 290930Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEPENING MOISTURE WITH SUSTAINED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH TX AND IN A SEPARATE AREA CLOSER
TO THE RED RIVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG WITH WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING MAY ENCOURAGE TRAINING CONVECTION.  

DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS ORGANIZATION GIVEN
PERSISTENT FLOW AT LOW LEVELS OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS AT 850 MB.  THE SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS
THAT MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J PER KG WERE BEING DIRECTED INTO THE
INFLOW REGION OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA.  WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE SHOWN IN THE INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SUSPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH TX FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERSPREADING AREAS WHICH WERE SOAKED A
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO.  

RADAR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTED AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
TX WHICH WAS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. 
WHILE CELL MOTIONS ARE FASTER UP HERE...THEY ALSO ARE MOVING IN A
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE TAPPING ML CAPE VALUES AT OR
ABOVE 3500 J PER KG...SUGGESTING THAT THEY TOO WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  

THE HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. 
HOWEVER IT...ALONG WITH OTHER HIGH RES/RAPID REFRESH MODELS...HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION UP NORTH. 
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS AREA COULD BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BY 08Z. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34409778 34009722 33329731 31999824 30549842 
            29429828 28779919 29120107 31080072 31650076 
            33160074 33809914