MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0258
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN COASTAL SC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290745Z - 291330Z
 
SUMMARY...AS T.S. BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST
INTO THE MORNING...INTENSIFYING RAINFALL RATES NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS RAISING
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

DISCUSSION...T.S. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY THROUGH 1330Z.
 DEEPENING MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER
SHOULD EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF SC NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME POCKETS OF PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.  INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST AND COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL INTENSITY.  

SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS GIVE SUPPORT TO THE HRRR AND RAP FOR
CONTINUATION OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST INTO INTO THE INTERIOR LOW COUNTRY...WHERE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34147929 33747884 31988047 32528172 33258145 
            33608067 33867987