MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0259
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
540 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290939Z - 291330Z
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING GIVEN TRAINING OF CELLS OVER AREAS ALREADY SATURATED BY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE WEEK. 

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED
MULTIPLE CORES OF HEAVY RAINFALL LINED UP FROM WEST TO EAST. 
THESE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POISED TO TRAIN
OVER AREAS ALREADY SATURATED EARLIER TONIGHT AND BY DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE THE COLDEST AROUND 0810Z
WITH VALUES APPROACHING MINUS 80 DEGS C JUST EAST OF HDO.  CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO WARM...BUT THERE WAS STILL AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW MINUS 65 DEGREES. THAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DECREASING RAINFALL RATES...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE DECREASE
IN RAINFALL RATES.

UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
PER HOUR MOVE OVER AREAS OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  

SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE
DECREASE IN RAINFALL RATES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
STARTING AS EARLY AS 11Z.  GIVEN THE SATELLITE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS...AND THE GENERAL DECREASE OF H85 WINDS UPSTREAM AS SHOWN BY
AREA 88D VAD WIND PROFILERS...THINK THE HRRR MAY BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30389826 30169768 29849760 29449779 29189864 
            29029891 29039926 29189968 29240005 29340034 
            29769982 29929956 30189907