MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0264
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND VICINITY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 291907Z - 292307Z
 
SUMMARY...EXPANDING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2-4" COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ALONG A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN TX APPEARS
POORLY MODELED BY THE CURRENT SET OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, WHICH
APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  SOME OF THE CONVECTION
IS SHOWING BACKBUILDING CHARACTERISTICS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.1", WHICH IS CLOSE TO 1.5" AT SEA LEVEL. 
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF 20 KTS IS FEEDING  MLCAPES OF 1000-3500 J/KG
INTO THE BOUNDARY.  DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS BEING SPONSORED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND AN UPSTREAM JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TX.

THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW, INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  FORWARD
PROPAGATION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25-30 KTS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INTERACTING WITHIN LESS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS COULD CAUSE CELL MERGERS.  BELIEVE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE POSSIBLE HERE, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY. 
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75" SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
REGION.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36360023 36229902 35369840 35009927 34990184 
            34980331 35270359 36110230