MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0265
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
609 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 292207Z - 300407Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING TRAINING CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER OKLAHOMA.  PWS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PWS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  MEANWHILE
MUCAPES ARE GENERALLY 2000-3000 J/KG.  GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY AS BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW INFLOW
OF 20-25 KTS IS IS EXPECTED TO HELP SUSTAIN THESE HIGHER PWS
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO IS FORECAST TO
PROVIDE LARGER SCALE LIFT.  SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OF
THE WAVE MAY SUPPORT REDEVELOPING CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST.  
PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AS CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST.  THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 04 UTC...THE LATEST RUNS
OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR...SHOW LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39919859 39159686 38579680 38129790 38509929 
            38250047 37990112 37730172 37920210 38720177 
            39680052