MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0266
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 292351Z - 300351Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WITH A NEW PERIOD OF
TRAINING  AND MERGING CELLS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS AND FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR SHOW CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SPILLING SOUTH ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY REINFORCE
A WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY CENTERED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHICH MAY
IN TURN PROVIDE A NEW FOCUS FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.  SUPPORTED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS PWS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA AS AMPLIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW INFLOW DRAWS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO
THE BOUNDARY.  THE 22Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS MUCAPES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 02-03Z.  CONVECTION DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BEGIN
TO MERGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL.  EXPECTED CONVECTION TO BEGIN
TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY 03Z AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  MUCH OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS NOT PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS CONVECTION.  ONE
RELATIVE EXCEPTION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED PARALLEL RUN OF THE HRRR
WHICH SHOWS WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH
THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH 06Z.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34690285 34370174 33759912 32809889 32750093 
            33790276 34440313