MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0267
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1122 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX TO CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 300322Z - 300730Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WITH A NEW PERIOD OF
TRAINING  AND MERGING CELLS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS AND FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGRY THROUGH 03Z
SHOWED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
TRAINING CONVECTION...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FOCUS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  THOSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AN AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES INTO THE THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFT REGION.  THE 01Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS MUCAPES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WEST TX.  IN GENERAL...THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ALTHOUGH THE
PARALLEL RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST DEPICTION OF
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.  IT STILL SHOWS WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH 08Z.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33419929 33249688 32389650 31679751 31079876 
            31079992 31530070 32280124 33140126