MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0268
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX...FAR SOUTHERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 300801Z - 301245Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SQUALL LINE
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN
OK...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS AND FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 0745Z
SHOWED CONVECTION HAD BECOME ORGANIZED IN A LINEAR MODE AND WAS
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST.  88D VAD WIND PROFILERS WERE
SHOWING 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WHICH WERE FEEDING THE STORMS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES.  AREA RADARS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
PER HOUR DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING
STEADILY.  SOME OF THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM HAVE BEEN
SOAKED IN RECENT DAYS...SO THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE STORMS.  

ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER...STORMS ARE LESS ORGANIZED BUT
STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES.  

THE HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF LOOKING TO BE WAY TOO
SLOW.  THE 00Z RUN OF THE WRF/ARW SEEMED TO BE DOING BEST AT
SHOWING THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EXTENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z.
 ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH 13Z

BANN

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34319642 33989586 33109560 31829614 31159659 
            30459739 29539890 29309994 29660060 30160102 
            30910126 31140083 31080042 31009962 31299860 
            31759805 32369796 33289748 33889733 34259692