MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0271...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR UPDATED GRAPHIC

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NY...NJ...EASTERN PA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 302326Z - 310156Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY
MOVE INTO AREAS RECENTLY IMPACTED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINS...RESULTING IN LOCAL RUNOFF CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND
EASTERN PA TOWARD AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
INSTABILITY.  KBGM RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SLOW MOVING CELLS
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OVER 1.5 IN/HR NEAR THE NORTHERN PA/NJ
BORDER.  CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGEVITY AND STRENGTH OF THESE CELLS
IS LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY ARE CURRENTLY DRIFTING INTO A REGION
RECENTLY IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINS.  1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 0.75 INCH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY -- SUGGESTING
THAT IF THESE CELLS DO PERSIST THEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO CREATE
LOCAL RUNOFF CONCERNS.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRW-ARW...LATEST
RUNS OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS CONVECTION.  THE HRW-ARW IS SHOWING 3-HR AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH 01Z.  

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   41247380 40437421 39727564 39927592 40347548 
            41177491