MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0272
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1140 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 310339Z - 310730Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION OVER WEST TX HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO
BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA GIVEN SLOW CELL MOTION AND
MULTIPLE CELL MERGERS. 

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES HAS
DEVELOPED AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE 0245Z AS AN IMPULSE IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS APPROACHED WEST TX.  SOME CONVECTION HAD
ALREADY DEVELOPED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE IMPULSE...WITH A FEW
CELLS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...THE ORGANIZATION HAS
LED TO INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD TOP TEMPS COOLING CONSIDERABLY. 

THE HRRR HAD BEEN HINTING THAT SOME AREAS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WERE POSSIBLE IN THIS PART OF THE STATE FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT IT
DID NOT DO PARTICULARLY WELL IN HANDLING THE UPSCALE GROWTH.  

AREA 88DS HAVE SHOWN MAXIMUM RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
PER HOUR WITH MORE THAN 2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF CELLS TRAINING.  THIS COULD BEGIN TO RIVAL THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF 2.5 TO 3 INCHES PER 3
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MAF TO LBB TO
30NW LBB WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWERS TO LESS THAN 2
INCHES PER 3 HOURS IN A FEW SPOTS. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34290120 33450004 33090040 32170134 31770165 
            31690260 32200298 32990277 34060198