MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0273
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS...OK PANHANDLE...FAR NORTH TX
PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 310536Z - 310900Z
 
SUMMARY...THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SQUALL LINE BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. 

DISCUSSION...THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE 00Z NAM CONEST AND THE
ARW...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR...THAT THE
SOUTHERN END OF A WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE WILL RE-ORIENT ITSELF
IN SUCH A WAY AS TO BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION SLOWING ITS FORWARD MOTION
AND ALLOWING FOR THE TRAINING OF CELLS. 

RADAR WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW THAT STORMS WERE PIVOTING OVER
SOUTHWEST KS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID COOLING OF CLOUD
TOPS.  BOTH OF THOSE ARE SIGNALS THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
LOCALLY 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SOMEWHAT LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30 KTS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE INTO THE CONVECTION.

ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH 1- AND 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38159895 37569883 36809929 36100130 36750233 
            37700262 37570073