MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0276
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 311800Z - 312300Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL FOSTER AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES/HR BASED ON MESONET DATA
FROM SOUTHEAST OK.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD IS INTERACTING WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLING NORTH TOWARD THE
RED RIVER WHICH IS COURTESY OF A BROAD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FETCH WHICH IS REFLECTIVE OF THE LARGER SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER THE REGION.

HIRES MODELS OVERALL ARE NOT HANDLING THE MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE AID OF SOLAR INSOLATION/DIABATIC
HEATING...THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST OK IS LIKELY TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE CELL MOTIONS
FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE NOTABLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE RED
RIVER...AND THUS SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER ARE LIKELY
TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
ABOUT 23Z GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER WHERE WHERE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL ENHANCE TOTALS TO
POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35419471 34779444 34099475 33789555 33639684 
            33849775 34129781 34639656 35059575