MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0279
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
705 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TEXAS...SW ARKANSAS...NW LOUISIANA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 312300Z - 010230Z
 
SUMMARY...LIMITED WINDOW FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS

DISCUSSION...MCS ENHANCED S/W CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF SW TEXAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE RE-ENHANCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT TREKKED ACROSS SE OK INTO SW AR/NE TX ATTM. 
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A REMAINING RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG FROM SE OF THE MCV NEAR INJ TO TXK TO M89
IN SW AR.  WELL ORIENTED TO NEARLY 90 DEGREE SURFACE MST
CONVERGENCE EXISTS SE OF THE MCV EXTENDING NE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS AND WITH
LLJ FLOW LESS THAN 20 KTS...PROPAGATION IS FAIRLY SLOW TO SUPPORT
EXTENDED DURATION OF CELLS TO LEAD TO 2-3" TOTALS POSSIBLY GREATER
NEAR CELLS MERGERS (CLOSER TO INJ AS THE MCV TRANSLATES UP THE
OUTFLOW LINE). 

ISOLATED CELLS DISPLACED FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A SLACKENED FLOW REGIME THAT SUPPORTS ZERO
CELL MOTIONS ALLOWING FOR COMPOUNDED RATES AND HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
FOR FLASH FLOODING SUCH AS NEAR TXK AND NE OF CRS.  

HI-RES CAMS LEAD BY THE MORE CONSISTENT VER.2 HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT LOSS OF DAY-TIME INSOLATION WILL INCREASE INHIBITION
IN THE 01-02Z WITH RAPID REDUCTION OF CONVECTION AND LIKEWISE
REDUCING FLASH FLOODING THREAT.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34219392 33769304 33119319 32459394 31959491 
            31409662 31519713 32849750 33379732 33299667 
            33269543 33739442