MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0281
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1223 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO...FAR NORTHEAST NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010423Z - 010830Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST CO WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM DURING THE EARLY MORNING. 

DISCUSSION...SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS INITIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CO WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST NM....WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.  THE STORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN A DEVELOPMENT
PHASE GIVEN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  

THE STORMS SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTH ALONG A REGION WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE RAP AND THE HRRR BEING IN WHERE THEY
PLACE THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.  INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERWHELMING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000 J PER KG PER THE SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE...AND THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BE RUNNING
INTO A REGION WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE EVENING. 
BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS GOOD WITH PRONOUNCE DIFLUENCE ALOFT.  

THUS THINK THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH 0830Z. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38640316 38580274 37910275 36930277 35700335 
            35850409 36450417 37440399 37800386 38050418 
            38220382