MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0283
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1258 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011655Z - 012155Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING AND CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. SOME FLASH
FLOODING AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY COOLING OVER THE LAST
2 HOURS WITH THE RATHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND THE NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK TX. THE CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT VORT CENTER WHICH IS PROVIDING RATHER
ROBUST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND IS INTERACTING WITH A RELATIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT IS POOLED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS.

THE COOLING TOPS SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN VERTICAL ASCENT AND THERE
HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED ON OCCASION AS SEEN
WITH THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM. GIVEN THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
GRADUAL DECREASE IN STATIC STABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...AND ALSO A PERSISTENT AREA OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE REGION OF
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER ASCENT...IT IS EXPECTED THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY MATERIALIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
HRRR GUIDANCE...AND THIS WILL BE FALLING ON NEARLY SATURATED
GROUND GIVEN THE EARLIER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS COUPLED WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE AT LEAST SOME FLASH
FLOODING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34810255 34440190 33860153 33310139 32850176 
            32900264 33610281 33980316 34360355 34730327