MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0284
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
527 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E TEXAS PANHANDLE...SW OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 012130Z - 020130Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEP CONFLUENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES FOR PROLONGED MDT
RAINFALL WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...DUE TO
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLASH FLOODING OR MORE LIKELY LONGER
DURATION FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE. 

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT PRODUCED FLOODING CONDITIONS
NEAR LUBBOCK ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED S/W CONTINUES TO ELONGATE
TOWARD THE EAST AS CONVECTIVE LINE PROPAGATES INTO HIGHER
INSTABILITY NEAR THE SW CORNER OF OK.  THESE CELLS ARE A BIT MORE
FOCUSED WITH COOLING IR TOPS TO -60C GIVEN BETTER MST CONVERGENCE
AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH PROVIDING RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR.  

FURTHER NORTH JUST SOUTH OR ALONG I-40...LONG FETCH OF 850-7H
CONFLUENCE/FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM NE OK ACROSS W OK TO
INTERSECT ALONG THE NE OF THE COMPLEX PROVIDES SOME FORCING
MECHANISM FOR WEAK ASCENT THAT FUNNELS TOWARD MERGING ACROSS THE E
TX PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK/NW NORTH TX BY THE EVENING. 
THIS MOISTURE FLUX WITH SOME INSTABILITY THAT WILL REMAIN WAVERING
IN THE 500-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ABILITY FOR
EMBEDDED AREAS OF DEEPER CONVECTION WITH CAPABILITY OF SHORT
DURATION HIGHER RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
EVACUATION IS BEING PROVIDED BY ANTICYCLONIC CURVED OUTFLOW JET
STREAM ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE INTO NW OK/S KS. 

ALONG WITH TRAINING...GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FETCH/BNDY TO
THE MEAN FLOW...SLOW CELL MOTIONS MAY LEAD TO HIGHLY ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS GIVEN SATURATED SOILS WITH THE AREA
RECEIVING OVER 3" ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LAST 2 WEEKS THOUGH
LIKELIHOOD FAVORS AN INUNDATION FLOODING SITUATION GIVEN THE
LONGER DURATION OF PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL.

SIMILAR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FURTHER NE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH THE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER IN W AND
CENTRAL OK PER AHPS 14-DAY QPE.  

GALLINA  

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35520062 35349942 34999906 34439890 33919903 
            33529991 33440086 34120182 34410226 34840229