MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0285
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020612Z - 021212Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS.  LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SNOWS PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH MUCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG.  00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP SHOWED WEAK
WINDS (10-15 KTS) FROM THE SFC THROUGH 6 KM AGL -- SUGGESTING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS.  WITH THE MEAN FLOW
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-PARALLEL TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION ...TRAINING OR BACK-BUILDING CELLS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
AND FLASH-FLOODING.  WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS...SEVERAL OF
THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS...SHOW ADDITIONAL LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH 12 UTC. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30049741 30029671 29479680 28959734 28389792 
            27809830 27339895 27479954 27980022 29180067 
            29399875