MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0288
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
736 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 021125Z - 021530Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX HILL
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
FOSTER HEAVY RAINS AND A LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE EXPERIMENTAL GLD-LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOWS
A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF STRIKE ACTIVITY ALONG AND ADJACENT A LINE
FROM AUSTIN TO BURNETT AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE MCS THAT
IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOME UPTICK IN THE
STRIKE ACTIVITY COUPLED WITH SOME COOLING OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS
IS SUGGESTING SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE OVERALL UPDRAFTS AND AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

THE CONVECTION IS BEING FACILITATED BY A BROADLY DIVERGENT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW CENTER APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX.
MEANWHILE...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND PWATS OF 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES IS IN PLACE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MCS.

HIRES GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY GOOD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY...AND
GIVEN THE OVERALL FAVORABLE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTION...THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE RATHER DEEP WARM AND TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHOULD FAVOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO
2.5 INCHES/HR. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 1530Z TO
BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. THESE RAINS WILL FALL OVER
SUBSTANTIALLY WET IF NOT SATURATED GROUND AND WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32239713 31909628 31539604 30979588 30189615 
            29509644 29309712 29819752 29929804 30469875 
            31119890 31699865 32089798