MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0290
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1018 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 021400Z - 021800Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND A 0844Z MODIS PASS SHOWS
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE BIG BEND
AREA OF TX. THIS IS FOSTERING AN AXIS OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW INVOLVING MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AS A RESULT IS IN PLACE AND
IS INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF MODEST INSTABILITY THAT HAS BEEN
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...PWATS ARE
RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES WITH THE GREATER VALUES FOCUSED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER DYNAMICAL
FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE PERSISTENCE
OF STRONG CONVECTION.

HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE TO REACH AND LOCALLY EXCEED 2
INCHES/HR GIVEN THE DEEPER COLUMN OF MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE
HOURS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES AT LEAST
LOCALLY THROUGH 18Z. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THESE
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PROMOTE MORE FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33030032 32979904 32449738 31789654 30989639 
            30649712 30969801 31649886 32159983 32600068