MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0298
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...FAR SOUTHWEST LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030959Z - 031559Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH SUNRISE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE
WEST...CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA.  THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ALONG MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST WITH
THE 08 UTC RAP SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF LA AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.  MUCAPES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THAT RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE.  THIS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AFFORDED IN
PART BY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALONG AN AMPLIFYING UPPER SPEED MAX
POSITIONED EAST OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE EXPANSION
OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO AREAS ALONG THE UPPER TX
AND WESTERN LA COASTS.  WHILE MANY OF THE OVERNIGHT HI-RES
GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE PROVEN TO BE TOO QUICK TO SPREAD CONVECTION
INLAND...DO AGREE THAT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE.  AND GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS...ANY HEAVY AMOUNTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY CAUSE
RUNOFF CONCERNS.
  
PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30519356 29869335 29479421 29259474 28829533 
            28619577 28899597 29389597 29999558 30509474