MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0299
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX...WESTERN LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 031400Z - 031630Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST TX WILL BE FALLING OVER AREAS OF SATURATED  GROUND...AND
WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO IS OVERSPREADING THE UPPER TX COAST AND CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN
LA. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND THE
ENERGY MEANWHILE IS INTERACTING WITH A DEEP POOL OF VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR FOCUSED ALONG THE TX/LA COASTLINE.

THE BLENDED-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWATS BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS SEEN IN THE
IR-DRIVEN OTD ALGORITHM. THUS THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES/HR.

WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
NECESSARILY BE AS FOCUSED OR CONCENTRATED AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...THE ADDITION OF ANY MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL EXACERBATE
ONGOING RUNOFF PROBLEMS. THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND THUS THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST
AND FAR SOUTHWEST LA WITH SUCH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32499447 31959353 31609326 30789296 29949294 
            29789314 29899330 30359337 30609385 30609455 
            30459503 30569496 31089491 31989515 32429502