MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0305
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MID AND UPPER TX COAST 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 040522Z - 041122Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN
ALONG THE MID TO THE UPPER TX COAST...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOILS SATURATED BY
RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

DISCUSSION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO A SURFACE COASTAL
BOUNDARY.  PWS WHICH ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...WITH THE
03 UTC RAP SHOWING VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER BEFORE SUNRISE. 
MUCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY WITHIN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO BEFORE DIMINISHING CLOSER TO SUNRISE. 
PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVING.  MEANWHILE...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE
UPPER LOW...WHICH REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX...IS EXPECTED
TO GENERATE LARGER SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.  GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING CONVECTION...FLASH
FLOODING IS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS.  FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING 11 UTC...THE LATEST HI-RES
MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE 04 UTC OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL
VERSIONS OF THE HRRR...SHOW LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES.

PEREIRA   

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   29909422 29569420 29209499 28739562 28369635 
            28819634 29809535