MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0306...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
615 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC TYPO

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041007Z - 041307Z
 
SUMMARY...AS HEAVY RAINS FALL ACROSS THE REGION...CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE COAST...RAISING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW POSITIONED BETWEEN A MID-UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN TX AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS FL CONTINUES TO CHANNEL AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  AS
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...PWS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF HIGHLIGHTED AREA. THIS
MOISTURE...INTERACTING WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED LIFT AFFORDED BY A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAVE PROVEN TO BE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS...WITH 3-HR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF OVER 4-INCHES NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLE. OVERALL THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS NOT SHOWN A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION.  ONE
RELATIVE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE HRRR -- WHICH
SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO TRAIN ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL 3-HR AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH 13 UTC.  

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32268662 31638613 30938595 30388591 30348685 
            30318733 30728757 31618720 32048711