MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0312
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN VA & NORTHERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041906Z - 050106Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND RAIN RATES UP
TO 2.25" AN HOUR ARE STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING IN NUMBER FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO NORTHERN NC, ALONG A
THERMAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS
BRINGING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG INTO THE REGION PER SPC
MESOANALYSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.8-2" PER
GPS DATA.

LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CELL COVERAGE. 
PULSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST, WHILE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ROUGHLY 20 KTS -- THIS COULD LEAD TO CELL MERGERS.  THE
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS IMPLIED BY THE GALVEZ-DAVISON
INDEX, WHICH SHOWS INCREASING VALUES WITH TIME, PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA.  THE CAM/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ADVERTISE LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 2-4", WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.  THE AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS
SUPPORT HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.25".  THIS COULD LEAD TO ISSUES,
PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS, DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37857948 37687740 36977604 35357535 34917609 
            35407838 36978048