MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0316
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 051936Z - 060006Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALIGNING ACROSS
EASTERN SC.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2.5" POSSIBLE, FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXPANDING COLD TOPS HAVE FORMED IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC.  THEY ARE INITIALLY ALONG A SEA BREEZE
FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND, BUT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
850-400 HPA MEAN FLOW.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ~2" PER GPS
VALUES, AND 850 HPA INFLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ADVECTING IN MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED BETWEEN A
THERMAL BOUNDARY IN THE FALL LINE/I-95 AND A SEA BREEZE
FRONT/POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH PUSH THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY
WESTWARD.  THE BEST 850 HPA INFLOW ALSO MIGRATES MORE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER RECENT RAP RUNS.  CAM/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5", WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.  HOURLY
RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" HAVE BEEN INDICATED ON RADAR, WHICH WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IN THE FEW URBAN AREAS ACROSS THE REGION.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34967923 34827830 34197832 32918005 32108117 
            32608163 33148176 33918143 34538055